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MicroClick, DoubleSoft… Microsoft/ DoubleClick Merger? March 29, 2007

Posted by Bill in Ad Serving, Auction-based media, exchanges, Microsoft, online marketing, Search Marketing.
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The Wall Street Journal reported yesterday that DoubleClick is for sale, Microsoft is the most likely buyer, and the two companies are already in talks.  The rumored hypothetical purchase price is $2 billion, which I feel is the “ask” not the “bid”.  People who cover the industry, but don’t work IN the industry, are speculating that the acquisition would make Microsoft much more credible in the minds of advertisers than it has been to date, would give a boost to AdCenter by association, and this marriage would somehow shift dollars away from Google.  The ‘insiders’ of the industry agree this hypothetical positioning will be great to speak of to analysts and press.  However, it is simply not true.  Microsoft is already credible to online advertisers and agencies through their MSN portal and properties.  However, Google owns the search market and will continue to own a vast majority of query share and a DoubleClick/ Microsoft merger will not change that at all.  The reason this makes sense is for Microsoft to be defensible to Google becoming the marketplace for online advertising as it has for search marketing. 

Yahoo! owns a piece of Right Media. AOL owns Advertising.com. Google has been cutting syndication deals for contextual marketing for years, and has recently focused on graphical ads and CPA pricing.  A Microsoft/ DoubleClick merger would make this a much more interesting battle, one that I would have to give the edge to those who already own content and are in this game… my force rankings at this point for the online marketing marketplace (OMM) would be:

1.  Yahoo– top portal on the Web, minority ownership of the best exchange technology in RMX
2.  AOL– best performing online ad inventory in the industry coupled with know-how of Advertising.com
3.  Microsoft with DoubleClick– MSFT still needs to fully embrace the ad-supported model and have an inventory syndication strategy.  If they do, they move to #2 on the Wise List with the DoubleClick assets
4.  Google– graphical ads are very different from text links; fear of Google becoming too powerful will keep them grounded here

The sleepers I would watch out for would include Quigo, Fox Interactive Media, and to a lesser extent, eBay.  It is a shame that IAC Advertising Solutions is not on this list… they once had the assets to make this happen.

 More to come on this…

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Comments»

1. Craig Swerdloff - April 2, 2007

Bill,

Is there no disclosure necessary on your Yahoo ranking?

2. Bill Wise - April 4, 2007

Craig, fair point… for those that did not read the below post, I will afford full disclosure…

1. I am currently the President of Remix Media. Remix is the services arm to Right Media, which is 20% owned by Yahoo.
2. I sit on the adCenter client advisory board for Microsoft
3. I sat on the search engine marketing (SEM) council for Google from 2005 through just recently in 2007.
4. I spent 5 years at DoubleClick in numerous roles… initially as financial director, working on the 1998 IPO.
5. Ask.com, now IAC Advertising Solutions, acquired the business I was running through ISH.

Thus, this is truly an “insider’s” view… I am related to everyone, present and past…

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